Recent weeks have brought unexpected relief to those who use VPNs in Russia. Services have been disconnecting less frequently, speeds have stabilized, and familiar protocols connect on the first try again. But it’s too early to relax. An expert explained that the current lull has nothing to do with a softening of the government’s stance. In the spring, Roskomnadzor had already significantly tightened restrictions, and now the agency appears to be preparing a new push — only much quieter and less noticeable than before.
Roskomnadzor is getting ready to seriously crack down on VPNs
Why VPNs Are Working Without Issues Again
In the spring and early summer, deep packet inspection systems worked crudely. The equipment cut packets based on formal indicators, targeting digital fingerprints of popular protocols like OpenVPN and WireGuard. This caused massive outages: filters were overwhelmed by false positives and cut even harmless connections.
Now, according to the expert, engineers have moved into a data collection phase. The system is no longer interested in the mere fact of a VPN connection, but in its behavior. It monitors which ports are used, how often reconnections occur, and whether obfuscation methods are employed. Simply put, the equipment isn’t resting — it’s calmly studying who is bypassing restrictions and how.
For now, most VPNs work without glitches or problems
The difference between the two modes is fundamental. Previously, the filter acted like an axe: it spotted a familiar signature and immediately cut it off. Now it’s more like an observer that compiles a dossier on each type of connection. The more complete this dossier, the more precisely it will be able to strike VPNs later without affecting regular traffic from banks, government services, and messengers.
Hence the feeling of stability. The algorithms are being recalibrated and aren’t hitting at full force yet. Once the tuning is complete, the calm will disappear just as suddenly as it appeared.
Why VPNs Work for Some but Not for Others
Many on social media are convinced that they’ve simply gotten used to the blocks and things have gotten easier. Experts think otherwise. It’s not the restrictions themselves that have changed, but the usage culture. The more advanced audience has long stopped relying on a single service.
Such users typically have several clients installed at once. When one protocol stops working, the person switches to another and the connection is restored. From the outside, this looks like complete stability, even though in reality the first tool is being suppressed by the system just as harshly as a month ago. It’s just that outages are no longer a shock.
Many keep several VPNs on their smartphones and have even switched to paid apps
It’s telling that precisely this segment shapes the picture in the comments. People with a backup option genuinely don’t notice any deterioration. Meanwhile, those who have one client and don’t tinker with settings regularly lose connectivity and complain the loudest. The overall impression ends up being deceptive.
All this resourcefulness has a downside. In the rush to find a working option, people often grab the first app they come across, which is already a matter of personal security. The Russian Interior Ministry has previously explained in detail what’s wrong with free VPNs, and the arguments they presented were quite convincing. Saving money on a service can easily result in personal data leaks.
How the New VPN Blocks Will Work
The expert sees the main change in the approach itself. Operators have accumulated enough statistics to abandon total outages in favor of targeted quality throttling. Instead of an honest connection error, users will get artificial slowdowns during peak hours, delays when opening pages, and problems transferring large files.
This scenario is much harder to circumvent precisely because it doesn’t look like a block. There’s no red error, no disconnection — the service seems to work, but using it is nearly impossible. The expert separately noted that analysis of time intervals between packets will intensify. This is a fundamentally new level that most current clients don’t yet know how to mask.
For the average person, this is the most unpleasant form of pressure. When a service honestly gives an error, at least you understand what’s happening. But here, a page loads in ten seconds instead of one, video stutters, a file won’t send, and you can blame it on anything: the ISP, the router, the app itself. Proving that filtering is actually responsible is nearly impossible.
The government also looks at VPNs from a financial perspective. The Ministry of Digital Development previously gave an official response about charging for foreign traffic, so regulation in this area will clearly not be limited to technical filters alone.
When VPN Blocks Will Be Tightened in Russia
Not only VPNs will be targeted, but proxies too
The expert also named specific timelines. According to his forecast, a fresh wave of restrictions will hit in late summer or early autumn. By that time, operators will have accumulated the necessary volume of data, and the recalibrated algorithms will be ready to operate in combat mode.
It’s worth keeping in mind that such forecasts are nothing new. Restrictions in this area have been tightening in waves for several years now, and each new cycle turns out to be more sophisticated than the last. So even if the specific dates shift, the general direction is beyond doubt.
Therefore, the current lull is better understood as a technical breather rather than a victory for users. The system is studying traffic behavior, not conceding ground. If the forecast comes true, this autumn Russians will face not the familiar outages, but a slow and imperceptible deterioration of connectivity that is nearly impossible to prepare for in advance.
