Apple’s first foldable smartphone called iPhone Ultra, which Cupertino is already making a replacement for, will be released this fall, but according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, buyers will actually be able to purchase it much later. There will be at least two reasons for this. First — Apple will put the device on sale somewhat later than the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max. Second — there will be so few units at launch that many buyers risk not receiving the smartphone until 2027. But let’s take everything in order.
The foldable iPhone may launch in September, but you’re unlikely to get it before 2027
When Will the iPhone Ultra Come Out
According to Kuo, Apple may repeat the iPhone X scenario from 2017: unveil the new device alongside the main lineup, but start actual sales several weeks or even months later. This way, Cupertino could solve the problem of mutual cannibalization. Those eager to get a new device will first buy the iPhone 18 Pro or 18 Pro Max, and a month or two later the iPhone Ultra will go on sale, so it won’t be able to take a significant share from the slab phones.
Besides, there’s another reason. Kuo’s sources from the supply chain point to a shortage of inventory that would allow the foldable iPhone to be purchased immediately after the presentation. This is exactly what happened with the iPhone X: the anniversary model was unveiled alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, but pre-orders didn’t start until late October, and sales began in early November.
How Many Foldable iPhones Will Be Produced by Launch
The numbers from the report make the scale of the shortage clear. About 7-8 million foldable iPhones are planned for the second half of 2026, but only 500 thousand to one million units will be allocated specifically for the third quarter.
For comparison, regular iPhones will be assembled in far greater quantities. About 20 million units of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will be produced — meaning the foldable model will literally be a rare commodity at launch. Simply put, if you want this smartphone on day one, the chances of getting it quickly are slim.
You can already get a sense of how apps will look on the foldable iPhone
Foldable Screen and Hinge: What Makes iPhone Ultra Production So Difficult
The delay is explained not by marketing, but by technology. The iPhone X shortage was caused by production issues — new solutions at the time, like an edge-to-edge OLED display and the Face ID facial recognition system, were difficult to scale up in volume.
The foldable iPhone has a similar set of new technologies. We’re talking about the flexible foldable display and the hinge — the mechanism that allows the body to fold. Most rumors about problems revolved around the hinge, although recent reports suggest that the hinge difficulties may have been resolved. The newer and more complex the design, the harder it is to produce in large batches without defects.
The flexible display and hinge are the most difficult components to manufacture in a foldable smartphone
How Reliable Is Ming-Chi Kuo’s Forecast
This is a forecast, not a confirmed fact, but the source is serious. Ming-Chi Kuo is known for accurate predictions about Apple, largely thanks to deep verification of data from suppliers. Rumors about the foldable iPhone being delayed have appeared before, but Kuo’s estimates are usually closer to reality than the rest of the leak stream.
It’s worth keeping a sober counterpoint in mind as well. Similar panic around “hurry up and order” repeats almost every year, and by the end of that same quarter the device is usually available to everyone who wants it. So a shortage at launch doesn’t necessarily mean months of waiting for everyone.
Is the Foldable iPhone Ultra Worth Buying
If you’re one of those who wants the foldable iPhone among the first, prepare for two things: limited batches at launch and the need to place your order as quickly as possible. Based on the forecast, casually walking into a store and buying the device on announcement day most likely won’t be an option.
For everyone else, there’s no rush. This is still a supply chain forecast, not official Apple data, and even with a shortage at launch, the situation usually evens out within a quarter. A sensible strategy is to wait for the first reviews of the foldable screen and hinge’s real-world reliability, rather than chasing the device in the first days just for the status of being an early buyer.
