Roblox was unblocked in Russia, and immediately everyone started talking about Telegram. A precedent has been set: a foreign service met the requirements and got access back. Deputy Svintsov called Telegram “the most likely candidate” for unblocking. Peskov said that “all services can return.” Sounds encouraging. But there’s a nuance that changes everything in the context of Telegram’s unblocking.

Assessing the likelihood of Telegram being unblocked after Roblox

News About Telegram’s Unblocking

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov commented on the Roblox unblocking as follows:

The Roblox story clearly shows that all services can return if they comply with the law.

This was said in response to a direct question about the possibility of Telegram and YouTube returning. State Duma deputy Andrey Svintsov went further and named specific timelines: if Telegram’s leadership is willing to do everything necessary, Russian authorities would lift the Telegram block within two to three months. According to him, Roskomnadzor and the government have “not as complex requirements for Telegram as for other foreign services.” He called YouTube, WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram (the latter three owned by Meta, recognized as extremist and banned in Russia) a “very distant prospect” — due to their alleged direct ties with the American government.

Sounds like good news. Now let’s figure out why it’s not as simple as it seems.

Why Telegram Was Blocked in Russia

To understand the situation, we need a retrospective. Telegram’s blocking in Russia de facto began on March 16, 2026: massive outages, messages hanging, media files not loading. Formally it’s a “partial restriction,” technically — the messenger is practically unusable.

Telegram was blocked because it refused to cooperate with Russian authorities

The official reason is the landing law and data localization requirements. Telegram in Russia is required to: store data of Russian users on servers within the country, interact with Roskomnadzor and the FSB upon request, and comply with decisions of Russian courts.

Telegram in 2026 refuses to comply with these requirements. The messenger constantly changes IP addresses, which allows some users to connect even under restrictions. But this is not a solution to the problem — it’s fighting symptoms.

Why the Roblox Path Doesn’t Work for Telegram

This is where the most important part begins, and it’s exactly what everyone cheerfully avoids in optimistic comments. Roblox is a gaming platform. To get unblocked, it disabled chats, introduced age filters, and strengthened content moderation. This is technically feasible without destroying the product itself. Roblox without chats is still a gaming platform.

Roblox no longer has chats, but the platform itself works

Telegram is a messenger. Its essence is messaging. Disabling messaging means destroying the product. That’s not an option. The second path remains — data localization. Transferring user conversations to servers in Russia. Telegram won’t do this — not because it’s being stubborn, but because it’s impossible within the current business model.

Telegram’s encryption is built on the premise that the messenger doesn’t leak conversations to anyone: not to American, European, or Russian authorities. This is not a political stance — it’s a commercial advantage. As soon as Telegram complies with one government’s requirements, it creates a precedent for all others. Iran will demand the same. China will demand it. Saudi Arabia will demand it. Telegram’s security as a global product would collapse instantly. This is exactly why Telegram doesn’t work in Russia for several months now, and exactly why Durov isn’t changing his position. It’s not stubbornness — it’s a matter of the product’s survival on the global market.

What Telegram Must Do to Get Unblocked — and Will It

Let’s break down each requirement specifically:

  • Data localization: storing Russian users’ conversations on servers in Russia. Probability of compliance: zero. This means physical FSB access to data. After that, Telegram ceases to function as a tool for confidential communication for anyone in the world.
  • Interaction with Roskomnadzor: reporting channels with prohibited content, removing them upon request. Telegram already partially does this by removing terrorist content by court order. But there is no systematic cooperation and none is expected.
  • Compliance with court requests: transferring data of specific users by decision of a Russian court. Again — a precedent for the entire world.

When Will Telegram Be Unblocked in Russia — An Honest Forecast

The honest answer: not anytime soon. And the Roblox precedent doesn’t apply here for the fundamental reasons I’ve outlined above. Deputy Svintsov says “two to three months if Telegram is willing.” But Telegram won’t be willing because it can’t. This is not a matter of negotiations — it’s a matter of business model.

Sitting, waiting, using MAX

Telegram’s unblocking is only possible in one scenario: if Durov finds a way to meet technical requirements without providing actual access to data — for example, through a verification system without handing over encryption keys. Theoretically, this is possible. Practically — no such solution exists yet, and no public negotiations about it are underway.

Telegram’s blocking in Russia is a story about a fundamental conflict between national legislation requirements and a global business model. Roblox resolved this conflict because it could. Telegram cannot — because its product is exactly what they’re asking it to give up.