Smartphones in Russia are already getting more expensive. On top of that, there’s a memory market crisis that’s driving prices up worldwide. But now Russian buyers have another reason to spend their money right now rather than wait. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has backed the introduction of VAT on foreign online orders starting January 1, 2027, at a rate of 22%. Smartphone price increases under this scenario will be significant. Let me break down exactly how much, and what’s worth buying before it happens.

The new tax has already been approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade

What Is the AliExpress Tax in 2026

Before discussing the new tax, let me remind you how the current system works. The customs duty in 2026 for purchases on foreign marketplaces already exists: it’s 15% of the amount exceeding the duty-free threshold. The duty-free threshold in 2026 is 200 euros (approximately 18,000 rubles) per parcel.

The 15% duty is already in effect, but only on amounts exceeding the 200 euro threshold.

This means: if a smartphone costs, for example, 300 euros, the duty is only charged on the 100 euros over the threshold. At an exchange rate of 90 rubles per euro, that’s approximately 1,350 rubles in additional costs. Not a catastrophe, but no longer free either.

VAT on Smartphones from China

Now for the new development. On May 6, 2026, it became known that the Ministry of Industry and Trade supported the introduction of a 22% VAT on foreign goods purchased online, effective January 1, 2027. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance is considering a softer option: 7% in 2027 with a gradual increase to 14% in 2028 and 22% in 2029. But the Ministry of Industry and Trade insists on an immediate 22%, and that’s an alarming signal.

You should hurry up with buying a new smartphone

A marketplace tax of this size effectively equalizes smartphones from China with official Russian retail in terms of final cost. This is precisely the goal of the initiative: lobbyists for domestic business (particularly the Russian Union of Tanners and Shoemakers) appealed to the government requesting an immediate introduction of VAT in Russia on foreign online orders, impose duties on them, and introduce mandatory labeling.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade wants 22% immediately starting 2027.

If you think that’s already a lot of taxes for one smartphone — you’re right. After all, the technology fee in 2026 hasn’t gone anywhere either: starting September 1, 2026, every officially imported smartphone is subject to an additional fee of 250 rubles. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is introducing VAT on top of all this.

Smartphone Price Increases in 2027

Let’s calculate using a specific example. The OnePlus 15 — a well-balanced flagship — currently sells on AliExpress for 54,811 rubles. In Russian DNS stores, the same smartphone costs 71,799 rubles. The difference is 16,988 rubles, which is the reason it makes sense to order from AliExpress.

Now let’s see what happens after the introduction of 22% VAT in 2027. Here are the specific calculations for the OnePlus 15:

  • Current AliExpress price: 54,811 rubles;
  • Customs duty of 15% on the amount exceeding the 200 euro threshold (approximately 18,000 rubles): plus 2,700 rubles;
  • 22% VAT on the full product value: plus 12,058 rubles;
  • Total price including all taxes: approximately 69,569 rubles.

The result: a smartphone costing 54,811 rubles on AliExpress after the introduction of VAT on smartphones will cost roughly the same as it does in DNS right now — 71,799 rubles. All the savings from ordering from China will evaporate. Smartphone price growth under the harsh scenario with an immediate 22% will be exactly like this: buying on AliExpress will no longer be profitable.

Which Smartphone You Should Buy Right Now

The logic is simple: if you’re planning to upgrade your smartphone in the next year, it’s better to do it before January 1, 2027. Chinese smartphones on AliExpress are currently 15-30% cheaper than official Russian retail, and this advantage will soon disappear.

Choosing a smartphone to buy right now. Image: Mrwhosetheboss

Here are five models worth considering right now:

  • POCO M7 — the best choice under 10,000 rubles. An affordable smartphone with an AMOLED screen and a decent battery for those who need a reliable workhorse without excessive claims.
  • realme 15 5G — the top pick under 20,000 rubles. 5G support, a good camera, and a fresh processor for a reasonable price. In this niche, it has virtually no competitors.
  • vivo V70 — an affordable camera phone for those who value photography. A strong main camera at a moderate price, a good choice for everyday use.
  • OnePlus 15 — a well-balanced flagship. Top-tier processor, large battery, clean shell without ads. This is the exact model we used for the tax calculations above — and right now is the best time to buy it.
  • HONOR Magic8 Pro — the best Android smartphone right now. Flagship chip, stunning screen, powerful cameras, and the HONOR ecosystem. If you want the best of what’s available — this is it.

A tax on goods from China at 22% will fundamentally change the market. Right now, AliExpress offers the opportunity to buy a flagship for mid-range money. After 2027, that opportunity will be gone. Smartphone prices including all taxes will match official retail, and the main argument for ordering from China will disappear.